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Statistcs Tell The Tale
Several of my brothers and sisters decided to get their DNA checked. It was a lark. My family is a little odd and a lot bizarre. We sent our samples in and got the results back. According to the lab there was a 97% probability that we were closely related. Okay, we had a laugh. Then I decided to follow up on this. After going through their menu got to talk to a real, live human. That be just an assumption on my part. "According to your results, I have a 97% chance of being related closely to my brothers and sisters. Umm, I'd have to say the chances are 100%. Don't you think there's a flaw somewhere?", I asked/ "No", was the reply. "No? How can it be no? I have to be related 'closely' to a brother or sister." "I realize that. I'm not stupid. What the results say is that there is a 97% probability. That's a statistic" "Yet, it's still wrong, isn't it?" "No". "No? What do you mean no?" "No. No, as in it's not wrong. I said it was a statistic. The fact that you are related closely to your brother and sister doesn't change the probability." "How can that be?" "I can make statistics say anything, that's how". |