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Statistcs Tell The Tale

Several of my brothers and sisters decided to get their DNA checked. It was a lark. My family is a little odd and a lot bizarre. We sent our samples in and got the results back. According to the lab there was a 97% probability that we were closely related. Okay, we had a laugh. Then I decided to follow up on this.

After going through their menu got to talk to a real, live human. That be just an assumption on my part.

"According to your results, I have a 97% chance of being related closely to my brothers and sisters. Umm, I'd have to say the chances are 100%. Don't you think there's a flaw somewhere?", I asked/

"No", was the reply.

"No? How can it be no? I have to be related 'closely' to a brother or sister."

"I realize that. I'm not stupid. What the results say is that there is a 97% probability. That's a statistic"

"Yet, it's still wrong, isn't it?"

"No".

"No? What do you mean no?"

"No. No, as in it's not wrong. I said it was a statistic. The fact that you are related closely to your brother and sister doesn't change the probability."

"How can that be?"

"I can make statistics say anything, that's how".

 



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Copyright © Don Roble..2007